Scenarios for the November 2024 Election

A1:  Divided Govt:  Dems keep Prez, but GOP takes Senate, and Republicans narrowly keep House.  GOP continues to harass Harris Administration.

A2:  Riven Congress:  Dems keep Prez, GOP wins Senate, but Dems flip House — perhaps 222Ds to 213Rs, same as Pelosi held 2021-2022.

B1:  Shaky Trifecta:  Trump retakes White House; Senate to GOP, and Republicans narrowly hold House (with ensuing fights over Speaker) — Fragile.

B2:  Civil War:  Trump wins for Prez; Senate goes GOP, and Dems take the House — Civil War.  Dems impeach Trump again (but not convicted).

The odds are low that Democrats can run the table for a Trifecta, because the Senate landscape (23 Ds and just 10 Rs) is tilted against that combo.

Democrats remain an “CITIES FIRST” party…  >90% of House Dems are from an urban district.   So urban issues drive their priorities.  

Republicans (Extraction States) will run the Fossil Fuel Economy longer… and the fervor for ESG has been tempered now in financial markets.

Curbing carbon emissions still matters, but will take a longer track past 2060, not an urgent rush to 2030.  
Examples:  Hybrid engines will replace the EV mandate.  More nuclear power will be deployed to replace coal and feed AI.  Ngas is still very cheap.

Defense spending will continue to see bipartisan support, not cuts, but the Federal Deficit remains a harsh intensifying pressure.

And, I do not expect that the election results will be neatly available on Nov. 6
— I expect disputes in 5 or 6 states will run into Dec.  As in 2000.   The first week of January will not be tranquil… either way.

The majority in the House might take two weeks or more for dust to settle on absentee ballot disputes and dropbox custody.

The BIL and IRA spending and incentives will run for a while, into 2026.  Tax policy will be a major battle in 2025 — TCJAct expiring.  

The Broken Border and Tariffs will also be major areas of contention for the new Congress.

The Senate is more a creature of the Chamber of Commerce (looser border controls), and the House will be bitterly Nationalist and Polarized.

The Senate will favor more aid for Ukraine, but a Trump Administration and GOP House would create frictions.

Sadly, I do not see either the War in Ukraine or the Conflict in the Middle East ramping down soon.  Iran and Israel are two scorpions in a bottle.

And conflict in Asia could amp up if China turns even more aggressive (an embargo of Taiwan, not invasion).

Any good news? Stock market at highs and Interest rates are trending lower.

Andy Paterson, 9/27/2024