Scenarios for the Nov 2022 Election Outcome
Clear SCENARIOS for the Nov 2022 Election Outcome by EBI lead political analyst Andy Paterson: October 3, 2022
[In the forecasting business we avoid saying “We will see”, which is like punting on third down. Forecasting is a business; “We will see” is not. Instead we use Scenarios, since the cases are very finite — in the 2022 outlook, Rs take the House, and the Senate is still narrowly divided.
Polling the last two or three elections has been SKEWED from the actual results in ONE direction: favoring Democrats, by about 3%-5%. Some of that is the difference between using “Registered Voters” (tilts Dem with more urban voters), rather than “Likely Voters” which tilts Red for Rs.
In the last two weeks of September 2022, the Betting line (not mere polling) for the 2022 election outcome has shifted noticeably among the Four Scenarios:
A) R Senate, R House, now at 47% (up from 41%): Now separating with a 6% “Likelihood” (not polls) spread over D Senate, R House. Flipping the House is a virtual certainty, above 75% consistently. The Senate outcome has been fluctuating all Summer. A “most likely scenario” with about 4 weeks to go is seen as about 52R in Senate, and 230+Rs in the House (up 20+).
B) D Senate (narrowly to 51D-52D), R House slipping to 40% was seen as within reach over the Summer as Dems gained from weaker (pro-Trump) candidates winning nominations in PA (Oz), in AZ (Masters), inarticulate Walker (GA) and in NH (Balduc). At least 5 Senate races are “too close to call’.
C) A D Senate, D House has never risen above 20% likelihood. With just 222 House seats, Dems are not seen as gaining seats. In 2020, Nancy Pelosi promised” Democrats would increase their margin in the House from a boffo 2018 campaign, but Dems LOST 12 seats in 2020.
D) An R Senate, D House is not seen as a viable outcome, just 2%. If Republicans flp the Senate that would be seen as fueled by weak turnout from uninspired Dems with a President crippled by low approval ratings, hovering around now 40% — very similar to Obama in 2014, when Democrats lost NINE Senate seats, down to 46 seats, after taking 60 seats in 2008. Low turnout would translate into Dems certainly losing the House with new District lines.
For those that can’t get enough: Paterson’s Latest Rundown as of October 3, 2022:
US SENATE 2022 DRIFTING RIGHT BARELY: Possible 51R-52R, net.
Now with five weeks to go, the typical bump in polls over summer for Dems is sagging:
1) PA: Fetterman’s health issues are not going away (multiple strokes during summer, limiting appearances). Even though Trumper and TV Celebrity Oz is being cast as a PA “outsider” from NJ and Turkey, some swing voters see Fetterman as possibly unable to finish a Senate term. Oz is gaining some moderate voters in a Purple State that went for Trump in 2016. Radical policies of Dems in Philly (DA Krasner) and rising crime are not helping Democrats; Summer of 2020 protests failed for the Urban “soft on crime” Left.
2) GA: Warnock has failed to distance himself on Walker. At the Governor level, moderate Kemp (not a Trump designee at all) has moved to 6-8 point lead on radical Dem candidate Stacey Abrams. Kemp will bring 2-3+ points for Walker as enough voters do not “ticket split” for Kemp and for Warnock in GA. This GA race could go into a 30-day “runoff” again if neither candidate takes 51%. Likely.
3) WI: Johnson is turning back the temporary surge by “Mandela Barnes” as voters generally see Dems defending the radical “Cripple the Police” agenda of the Left, plus Team Biden’s Inflation problems — those are the issues in Wisconsin more than “Dobbs” decision.
4) NV: Republican AG Adam Laxalt is widening the gap with incumbent Cortex Masto on her failure to credibly answer on the insane Biden Admin Border policy. “Laxalt” name ID is worth some points from Adam’s grandfather Senator “Paul Laxalt” (1974-1987; also Governor of NV, 1966-1970), a close Reagan friend and widely respected fiscal conservative, even by his successor Harry Reid. Laxalt is supported by Trump, but not dependent on him at all for Name ID in NV.
5) AZ: Astronaut Mark Kelly has stridently broken from the Biden Admin failed policy on the “Broken Border”, which is a huge issue in Zona — much bigger than Dobbs decision on abortion. Trump devotee Blake Masters may not have enough fuel to challenge Kelly.
6) OH: JD Vance is consolidating “Red shift” in Ohio as working class voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 stay loyal. Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan is running AWAY from Biden, not inviting any appearances with the President; he is not even running as a Dem!
7) NH: Suddenly up in the Granite State, the most Republican of all the states in New England, incumbent Maggie Hassan is being sucked into a duel with Republican General Balduc. Back in 2016, Hassan barely defeated Kelly Ayotte by just 0.1% in this Purple State. Balduc is forcing Hassan to defend Team Biden’s failures on economic issues and Inflation, and the foreign policy fiascos. Dems saw this seat as “Lean Dem” and now Hassan is dragged into a Tossup battle because of rising fuel and food prices hitting households as Winter comes on.
This likely means that the IRA will be the last thrust at Climate Policy until at least 2025. Expect the wrangling over EPA priorities to be fierce again (as in 2017).
