Scenarios for the Nov 2022 Election Outcome
Clear SCENARIOS for the Nov 2022 Election Outcome by EBI lead political analyst Andy Paterson: October 3, 2022
[In the forecasting business we avoid saying “We will see”, which is like punting on third down. Forecasting is a business; “We will see” is not. Instead we use Scenarios, since the cases are very finite — in the 2022 outlook, Rs take the House, and the Senate is still narrowly divided.
In the last two weeks of September 2022, the Betting line (not mere polling) for the 2022 election outcome has shifted noticeably among the Four Scenarios:
B) D Senate (narrowly to 51D-52D), R House slipping to 40% was seen as within reach over the Summer as Dems gained from weaker (pro-Trump) candidates winning nominations in PA (Oz), in AZ (Masters), inarticulate Walker (GA) and in NH (Balduc). At least 5 Senate races are “too close to call’.
C) A D Senate, D House has never risen above 20% likelihood. With just 222 House seats, Dems are not seen as gaining seats. In 2020, Nancy Pelosi promised” Democrats would increase their margin in the House from a boffo 2018 campaign, but Dems LOST 12 seats in 2020.