ICF projects 50 GW of coal-fired power to retire

A series of new and pending rules issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could lead to the retirement of more than 50 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electricity generation capacity in the United States over the next 10 years, according to the recently released “Integrated Energy Outlook” for the first quarter of 2011 from ICF International (Fairfax, VA). The Clean Air Transport Rule (CATR), maximum achievable control technology (MACT) standards for hazardous air pollutants (the so-called “Boiler MACT”), potential regulations requiring improved coal ash management, and cooling water intake structure standards could impose significant compliance costs on electric utilities, which may choose to retire rather than upgrade a significant number of older or smaller plants, ICF said. The study finds that U.S. coal exports could double by 2018, unless they are constrained by limited export capacity. It also finds that rising renewable mandates in the PJM and New England territories, along with the loss of key federal incentives, should boost renewable energy credit (REC) prices through the end of the decade.