Last Minute Election Forecast: EBI’s MiW ‘Hazards an Outcome’

Point: So who wins on November 3? A big victory for the Dems? Biden gets 300+ electoral votes and the Dems win the Senate by one seat or the tiebreak, and the House by 40+ seats? How do you like that outcome?


Counterpoint from EBI’s Man in Washington:
Not so fast.
With the rallies the last 7 days and some Biden scandal drippings, I believe Trump has raised his odds from 10% to 30%.
In 2016, the most extensive statistical analysis gave Trump only a 10% chance.
So, in this view in 2020, Trump carries THREE times the likelihood as in 2016, but is still not the most likely winner.  COVID was a major setback.
And, I do believe strongly there will be ballot malfeasance at a minimum in PA, and likely in MI, WI, AZ as well.
Trump must take his home Florida to have any shot, and I think he will.
From there, Biden wields more probable scenarios, but they narrow sharply if he loses PA.
LAST EBI FORECAST – NOV 3: IMPASSE, A Nation Badly Divided
We will wake up Nov. 4 without a winner. The recent court cases about mail-in ballots and what’s in / out, plus jostling over access to polls will extend the election into OVERTIME, particularly in PA and OH. On Nov. 4, so long as Florida is unresolved, this will be a redux of the disputed 2000 election on steroids — with legal disputes in more states and riots in cities (several cities are already boarding up). Check your horoscope: Jupiter in conjunction with Saturn (amplified turmoil; same as in 2000).
On Nov. 4, I expect to see the map below (Biden at 232; Trump at 234), and a big “Too close to call” banner in the newspapers. If Biden has taken Florida outright, then he will win. But, I expect Trump will keep his new Sunshine domicile from 2016 with the Cuban Miameros helping him over the top. Biden is favored in MI.
Pennsylvania looks to be the whole ball game with Blue Philly being stacked up against the Frackers in Western PA.
WI and AZ may play subordinate roles in pushing the murkiness for more weeks. Keep in mind, Bush v. Gore was not resolved until Dec. 12. Democrats should also note that had Gore not been so strident against fossil use in the campaign, WV would have stayed Blue, and Gore would have reached 271 without Florida. NC faces a narrow count also, including a tight Senate race — I think Trump holds in NC but “tin ear” Tillis (R) loses.
SENATE: Headed to 50-50. Complicating the Electoral College impasse will be a Senate tally that is virtually guaranteed to extend into January with TWO runoffs in GA. Republicans likely win both — though incumbent Perdue (R) has not been sharp. That may put the Senate at 50Rs and 49Ds, with a Senate race in a tossup state still being adjudicated. Ernst in IA, perhaps Bullock in MT need to survive for the Rs to stay at 50. Democrats likely take ME, CO, AZ and NC, but will lose Jones in AL. Net +3D. Saboto the UVA sage posts this exact scenario.
HOUSE: Dems only lose about 5. A stronger ticket up top would deliver more gains, but Pelosi remains Speaker.

MUDDLED RESULTS: No mandate for either candidate. The 2020 result will be a huge contrast with the BIG mandate of Obama-Biden in 2008, with 58 Senators (Dems got 2 more later), plus 257 House seats. In 2020, Biden might limp in with 235 House seats and just 50 Senators. Combined with an Electoral College impasse, that’s as feeble a “win” as possible. Unless… there is NO resolution in the Electoral College; litigation goes for months. Neither candidate receiving 270 means that the selection of President would fall to the New House, where each State would receive ONE vote (as per Constitution). Trump somehow is crowned via a House State-by-State vote with 26 States (Trump won 30 States in 2016). Democrats would protest that result with throngs in the streets, but the Supreme Court would validate it 6-3. Major Blue Cities would scream through their Blue Majority of Democrats in the House (say 235Ds to 200Rs), against Red States in the Senate. In Europe they call this: “Hung Parliament” or “Minority Coalition” or an “Unsettled Divide” or “Co-habitation” in France. In USA, we call it “Civil War”. Aux armes, citoyens –

With this map, and five states undecided (72 total EVs), Biden and Trump each have 8 combinations within the 5 states to win. But the probabilities of those 8 combos vary.


Counterpoint: Ah… the east coast and its constant desire for stress and drama. From the laid back west coast we see it a bit differently. Not quite a landslide mandate, but a convincing victory for Biden, Senate rides coattails, and firm control of the House for the Democrats, and a humble and uplifting concession speech by the Donald… well three out of four is not too bad.