Last Minute Election Forecast: EBI’s MiW ‘Hazards an Outcome’
Point: So who wins on November 3? A big victory for the Dems? Biden gets 300+ electoral votes and the Dems win the Senate by one seat or the tiebreak, and the House by 40+ seats? How do you like that outcome?
We will wake up Nov. 4 without a winner. The recent court cases about mail-in ballots and what’s in / out, plus jostling over access to polls will extend the election into OVERTIME, particularly in PA and OH. On Nov. 4, so long as Florida is unresolved, this will be a redux of the disputed 2000 election on steroids — with legal disputes in more states and riots in cities (several cities are already boarding up). Check your horoscope: Jupiter in conjunction with Saturn (amplified turmoil; same as in 2000).
MUDDLED RESULTS: No mandate for either candidate. The 2020 result will be a huge contrast with the BIG mandate of Obama-Biden in 2008, with 58 Senators (Dems got 2 more later), plus 257 House seats. In 2020, Biden might limp in with 235 House seats and just 50 Senators. Combined with an Electoral College impasse, that’s as feeble a “win” as possible. Unless… there is NO resolution in the Electoral College; litigation goes for months. Neither candidate receiving 270 means that the selection of President would fall to the New House, where each State would receive ONE vote (as per Constitution). Trump somehow is crowned via a House State-by-State vote with 26 States (Trump won 30 States in 2016). Democrats would protest that result with throngs in the streets, but the Supreme Court would validate it 6-3. Major Blue Cities would scream through their Blue Majority of Democrats in the House (say 235Ds to 200Rs), against Red States in the Senate. In Europe they call this: “Hung Parliament” or “Minority Coalition” or an “Unsettled Divide” or “Co-habitation” in France. In USA, we call it “Civil War”. Aux armes, citoyens –
Counterpoint: Ah… the east coast and its constant desire for stress and drama. From the laid back west coast we see it a bit differently. Not quite a landslide mandate, but a convincing victory for Biden, Senate rides coattails, and firm control of the House for the Democrats, and a humble and uplifting concession speech by the Donald… well three out of four is not too bad.