The Blue Wave is coming!

Blue State Point: The Blue Wave is coming! The democrats will have at least a 20-seat and possible 50-seat majority in the House of Representatives…  and yes even a majority in the senate. Tell me why this is wrong?

Counterpoint: Read it and weep Blue State hopefuls…

WAVE — WHAT WAVE?  More likely a “Mild Flip”

The “Blue Wave” is subsiding from several factors:
1) Republicans still hold advantages of House district lines until 2022.  Retirements by 40+ established GOP members will help Democrats, but the wave will be muted;
2) Even Democrat pundits are worried about Millennials not showing again (as previously), and Dems need their 60:40 advantage — punch lost;
3) the Economy is humming;
4) Early voting in 2018 is tilting Republican, and this takes place in 37 states;
5) The “wave” won’t help much in Senate races within 10 Red States Trump won in 2016.
Dems pile up too much of their “wave” in cities they have already won.
The Senate landscape looks like +2 or 3 for the GOP because of a terrible map for Democrats.
National averages mean very little in the Senate; only one-third of it is elected each cycle.

Bottom up estimate of HOUSE — a “Mild Flip”, running +30 for Democrats to 224 vs 211 for Republicans:

And remember for mid-terms: Anything under 230 is a “Mild Flip”, a muted mandate — Republicans got 241 in 2016.

With Obama in 2009, Dems reached 257, until they got flushed in 2010, a massive 63 seat washout. Now… That’s a mandate.

Dems could certainly cause trouble (investigations, hearings) with 225+, but not pass much legislation.

WAVE? For Governors it could be a Blue Roll

A Blue “Roll” may materialize in one domain:  Midwest Governors. Dems are likely to retake MI and IL, which they lost in 2014.

And IA, WI, and OH are within reach — those BigTEN States where Hillary lost the 2016 election.
This might give Dems some new leaders to restock a thin bench, but the Leadership up top refuses to pass the torch:  Biden (78), Sanders (79), Hillary (71), Pelosi (77).

The Progessive understudies, Kamila Harris (CA; 54), Cory Booker (NJ: 49), bring some energy — but which Red States could they flip? C’mon now!

Winning NY / NJ, CA, and IL does light a path to the White House.
Dems need a Southerner.  Ooops, they’re all gone.

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