Late September Forecast of House Election Results

POINT: 9/24/2018; The latest credible 2018 election forecast for the House of Representatives says: 232Ds to 203Rs.


What did we learn from the 2016 election and the incorrect election forecast 6 weeks out?

A: We underestimate the ‘reactionary’ vote: anti-Hillary in 2016; so anti-Trump in 2018?

B: We underestimate the disaffected minority or what become known as the Trump voter?
I think it is about reaction and motivation to vote so the House will turn Democrat majority, but a vote for Congress is less ’emotional’ than a Presidential vote, agree?



ANDY’S COUNTERPOINT: A Blue Wave Crashes On Blue States


It is not that the vote for Congress is less EMOTIONAL; rather the vote for Congress is STRUCTURALLY very different.

1) Unlike for President, votes for the House are in districts, many of which are drawn a) without much voter input; and b) in a manner where fewer voters actually know who their REP is (no matter the party).  By contrast, Gerrymandering plays no role in the Electoral College by State for President.

2) Nearly everyone consciously has thought about a Presidential vote, with high visibility TV coverage..  Much less so for the House.

3) Only about 10%-15% of House districts are truly “in play” each time, and only 10-12 states are “in play” for any Presidential election.

This contrasts with about 20 states that were “in play” (less than a 10% margin) in 1980, Reagan vs Carter.

For the MAJORITY of voters, indeed, their vote does not matter much if they are in a district or state that is not a swing zone.

Hence, “emotions” mean little in the broad set of cases.  Rabid turnout won’t matter.  A Blue wave does not change much.

4) As for disgruntled voters — e.g., the 20% of Sanders voters who voted for Trump — YES, they mattered in disproportionate numbers in PA, OH, WI, MI.

Those Midwest industrial states where Sanders did well in the Primaries, but which Democrats lost in Nov. 2016.

Ironically, the Blue Wave could wash up on shores already Blue (CA, OR, WA, NJ, MA…) while, a land-locked industrial interior remains up for grabs.

The 2016 election is a classic example:  Hillary won 3m more votes in 2016 — ALL of it accounted for in CA and NY City; She only won 20 states.

In fact, Trump won the other 48 states by 3m votes, and voters in those states will NEVER submit to CA and NY choosing the President by popular vote.

USA is not a nation like France; it is a federated Republic, more akin to Europe but with a President chosen by States.